Recent events in Libya have gotten me thinking… but not about my usual stuff. No, I’m not concerned with international relations (relations, heh heh) or game theory or … well there are lots of interesting things going on in Libya. No, I have been thinking about the no fly zone.
You see, so long as developed countries have such overwhelmingly superior air power they have some measure of control over other less developed nations. If you look at past wars we have lost impressively few aircraft and it is not for lack of effort on the behalf of our enemy. In fact, the story of an american plane downed in the Bosnian peace keeping mission is practically a legend.
As the Iraq and Afghanistan wars have shown us, if we have to fight on the ground we are much more vulnerable. So much so in fact that it could be possible for a small 3rd world country to win such a war against us. All that is necessary is to inflict enough casualties that the american public loses it’s appetite for fighting and we will pull out.
But you can’t keep control over a country if you are constantly afraid of the skies. Trains and trucks used to restock your fighters will have a small chance of surviving. Nor can even relatively small groups of people move around without being blown up. The key then, if you are a small poor nation fighting a large one is to bring your enemy to the ground.
That is currently very expensive and difficult. Only fairly large missiles can reach high flying planes and these are pretty expensive. It also take relatively high technology to overcome jamming and other modern anti-missile methods like flares and whatnot. Anything reasonably cheap is also going to involve a radar transmitter that will broadcast your location to the enemy. All in all this means that fighting a long and protracted war is near impossible.
All that is about to change. I think. Witness the new class of lasers being developed by the Navy. An anti-aircraft weapon would not need to be as strong, aircraft have far thinner skins and move far slower then missiles. Additionally, the weapon fires instantaneously and is potentially impossible to track. The optical technology need to focus the beam on a plane 20 km away already exists so now it is just a matter of powering the device. Throw in some ultracapacitors and a remote charging station and you have a virtually silent indefensible weapon. And, since all you need is electricity, you can fight for years at only 5o bucks a fire.
No more No Fly Zones. At least, no more no fly zones enforced by aircraft.
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